Philosophy Lexicon of Arguments

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Prediction, philosophy: statements about the future are about the conditions under which one is willing to give them credibility. Among other things, this is an assessment of the methods used. See also regularity, causality, reliability, reliability theory, explanation, projectability, induction, deduction, certainty, methods, future, extrapolation, statistics, probability, natural laws, truth values.

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Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments.

 
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Books on Amazon
139
Learning/Prediction/Prognosis/Frith: Thesis: We learn through prediction. The brain uses mistakes in the prediction to make it better next time.
Solution: the brain makes two different predictions about my movements:
1. inverse model: which command sequence will generate the motion? The brain must "conclude back" from the output of the motion device to its input.
2. Forward model: what movements will occur when a sequence of commands are sent?
Test: can only be done by real movement.
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I 140
N.B.: it does not need a real movement to test whether both predictions are compatible.
Brain: the brain can adjust my models (forward and backward) without making a movement. ((s)> mental training).
Definition Helmholtz machine/Frith: is a machine that can learn in this way: to compare the backward and the forward model without performing the movement already.
Forward model: what movement is there when I send this command?
Backward model: what commands must have been sent for this movement to occur?
N.B.: that happens in sleep.
Wake-Sleep Algorithm: uses two types of prediction:
1. Recognition: predicts which object will trigger these sensory sensations. (backward)
2. Generate: predicts which sensations this object will produce. (forward)
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I 166
Prediction/error/Bayesian theorem/Frith: what happens if a mistake is noticed in the prediction?
Backwards: the activity pattern that should be perceived by the eyes, ears, etc.: P (X I A).
Mistake: helps us to come to a better understanding of the world.
P (A I X): is this new conception (update).
Correction: the brain now runs through a loop, in which each time a different activity pattern is predicted. The error is reduced every time.
Knowledge: if the error is small enough, the brain "knows" what is outside. However, the brain continues to go through this process incessantly.


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Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution.

Frith I
Chris Frith
Wie unser Gehirn die Welt erschafft Heidelberg 2013


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Ed. Martin Schulz, access date 2017-11-19