Philosophy Lexicon of Arguments

Bayesianism: perceives probability as the degree of a belief. See also subjective probability, objective probability, chance, likelihood.
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Books on Amazon
Spi I 39ff
Bayesian Theorem/Bayesian Rule/Bayes/Spies: answers the question: how is the inference from a causal to a diagnostic probability possible? - (Question of how is it possible) - Bayes Formula - P(D l S) = P(S l D) x P(D) / P(S) - P(S): probability that the symptom is present: how many patients complain about it? - Def Basic Rate: P(D): probability of diagnosis without consideration of the symptom (How common is the disease?) - Bayes' theorem, verbal: diagnostic probability = causal probability times base rate divided by probability of the symptom.

M. Spies
Unsicheres Wissen Heidelberg 1993

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Ed. Martin Schulz, access date 2017-05-27