|Prediction, philosophy: statements about the future are about the conditions under which one is willing to give them credibility. Among other things, this is an assessment of the methods used. See also regularity, causality, reliability, reliability theory, explanation, projectability, induction, deduction, certainty, methods, future, extrapolation, statistics, probability, natural laws, truth values._____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. |
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Theory/Physics/Genz: their task is not prediction, but explanation. Predictions are only for review.
Prediction/Description/Periodicity/Genz: Question: the Babylonians could also predict solar eclipses without even knowing how the solar system was constructed.
Solution: this was possible because the operations in the system are periodic.
Example "Saros cycle": after 6585 1/3 days there is another solar eclipse.
Periodicity/Prediction/understanding/Genz: due to periodicity, prediction is possible without understanding. That is not a why-explanation.
Prediction/forecasting/Genz: it is not the laws that are needed, but the consequences of these laws.
Prediction/Genz: Example: Assuming you have a program called "Grail" that predicts the results of all possible experiments, if you have it, you do not need any laws of nature.
Prediction/Genz: For example, my program "Grail" can predict the results of all experiments without knowing anything about natural laws: Assuming we wanted to build a missile shield: Grail can hardly support it, because we need more for a plan:
Plan/Genz: must be more than just predicting results: it must have insight into the possibilities.
Problem: no program that answers questions can decide which questions make sense.
For example "Grail": doubles nature for us. We could ask nature itself instead of the Grail. Grail does not contribute to their understanding. (GenzVsInstrumentalism). The program does not explain anything, but calls for an explanation (like nature).
Theory/Genz: physical theories have only the task of explaining sensory impressions. They form systems of statements and draw verifiable experimental conclusions from them. ((s) = observation
conditional )._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution.
Gedankenexperimente Weinheim 1999
Wie die Naturgesetze Wirklichkeit schaffen. Über Physik und Realität München 2002