Philosophy Lexicon of Arguments

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Probability, philosophy: If one talks of probability, it is a question of statements applying more or less probable, which describe the course of processes and their results; probability is not about the properties of objects. See also subjective probability, objective probability, probability function, probability distribution, Bayesianism, chance, probability conditional, relative frequency.

Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments.

Author Item Summary Meta data

Books on Amazon
V 83
Probability/subjectivism/subjective probability/Lewis: pro subjectivism: beliefs about probabality are relevant. - Only subjectivism can understand them.
V 85
It is possible that we also believe from a coin which showed 85% head in the past that the chance next time is 50%.
Resilience/Skyrms: Elasticity: uncertainty cannot be shaken by new information. - Beliefs about results and prospects may differ.
V 89
Solution: The chance of t that A is true is a non-rigid designator.
V 86
Believe/reasonable/probability/opportunities/Lewis: Degrees of believe about results that are based on certainty of chances are elastic (resilient, relatively immune to new information) if the new information is permissible (i.e. after the event).
V 86
Principal Principle/main principle/probability/opportunity/Lewis: the Principal Principle is to be modeled according to our experience with direct conclusions.
Exceptions: 1) it is about opportunity, not frequency.
2) Certainty of probabilities (opportunities) contributes to the resilience (resistance to new information).
V 147
Probability/Lewis: is shifted. - Never created or destroyed. - So the sum is always 1.

Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution.

D. Lewis
Die Identität von Körper und Geist Frankfurt 1989

D. Lewis
Konventionen Berlin 1975

D. Lewis
Philosophical Papers Bd I New York Oxford 1983

D. Lewis
Philosophical Papers Bd II New York Oxford 1986

LwCl I
Cl. I. Lewis
Mind and the World Order: Outline of a Theory of Knowledge (Dover Books on Western Philosophy) 1991

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Ed. Martin Schulz, access date 2017-11-21