|Prediction, philosophy: statements about the future are about the conditions under which one is willing to give them credibility. Among other things, this is an assessment of the methods used. See also regularity, causality, reliability, reliability theory, explanation, projectability, induction, deduction, certainty, methods, future, extrapolation, statistics, probability, natural laws, truth values._____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. |
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prediction /forecast/ prophecy / Poundstone: a) calculation for a model, example eclipse, just a "shortcut" - b) no model or method or simulation, which is simpler than the phenomenon itself_____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution.
I W. Poundstone Im Labyrinth des Denkens, Reinbek 1995