Philosophy Lexicon of Arguments

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Bayesianism: perceives probability as the degree of a belief. See also subjective probability, objective probability, chance, likelihood.

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Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments.

 
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Books on Amazon
I 304/305
Definition Bayes-Formel/Pinker: chances in two competing hypotheses can be calculated using only two numbers - 1. Initial probability: how safe is the hypothesis before any data are considered? - 2. "likelihood" assumes the hypothesis is true, how likely is it that the evidence we have actually occurs? - Then take the initial probabilities for both hypotheses and the likelihood and divide the two numbers. that is the probability of applying the first hypothesis.


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Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution.

Pi I
St. Pinker
Wie das Denken im Kopf entsteht München 1998


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Ed. Martin Schulz, access date 2017-10-19