|Information, information theory: A character or a character combination contains information when it is clear to the recipient that this character or the character combination appears instead of another possible character or a possible character combination. The supply of possible characters determines to a part the probability of the occurrence of a character from this supply. In addition, the expected probability of the appearance of a character can be increased by already experienced experiences of regularities. The amount of information transmitted by a character depends on the improbability of the occurrence of the character._____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. |
|Sunstone I 14
Information/prices/markets/Hayek/Sunstein: a pricing system, as suggested by Friedrich August von Hayek, can help in solving the problem of how (implicit) pressure is exerted in group discussions to withhold potentially crucial information. This has a pronounced effect on the gathering of information.
Markets/Hayek: Markets create prices for goods in a way that processes scattered information distributed among very different people. In markets, participants have an extreme incentive to be right. Some information may remain "hidden", but when it comes to making a profit, this information will not be hidden for customers and investors for long. For this reason, market prices reflect a high degree of information. (Cf. (1))
Sunstein: You could say that markets create something like a "Daily Us": (See Filter bubbles/Sunstein).
SunsteinVsHayek: However, his argumentation had a blind spot. Markets can also process false information. Styles can lead to inflationary prices. This can also affect land and real estate prices. (See Markets/Sunstein, Markets/Hayek).
Prediction markets/forecast markets/Sunstein: Examples where information markets are efficient: For example, to recognize tendencies of air pollution, to observe deficits in public budgets (2). For example, tracking outbreaks of diseases and predicting their spread or monitoring the solvency of institutions. (3)
Manipulation: Candidate Pat Buchanan's supporters bought large quantities of shares in the IEM (Iowa Electronic Market, a prediction market for elections) in 2000 to manipulate the prediction. However, better informed investors subsequently took advantage of this.
1. Friedrich Hayek, Law, Legislation, and Liberty, vol. 1: Rules and Order (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1973) p. 13.
2. See Abramowicz, “Prediction Markets, Administrative Decisionmaking, and Predictive Cost-Benefit Analysis,” pp. 990–92.
3. ibid. pp. 987-90._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. The note [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition.
Friedrich A. Hayek
The Road to Serfdom: Text and Documents--The Definitive Edition (The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, Volume 2) Chicago 2007