Psychology Dictionary of ArgumentsHome
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| Prediction: Prediction is the process of making a statement about what will happen in the future. It can be based on past experience, current trends, or expert knowledge. See also Statements, Assertions, Method, Knowledge, Future, Certainty._____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. | |||
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Hennig Genz on Prediction - Dictionary of Arguments
II 18 Theory/physics/Genz: the task of theory is not prediction, but explanation. Predictions are only for review. >Confirmation, >Measurements. II 45 Prediction/description/periodicity/Genz: question: the Babylonians could also predict solar eclipses without even knowing how the solar system was constructed. Solution: this was possible because the operations in the system are periodic. Example: "Saros cycle": after 6585 1/3 days there is another solar eclipse. II 46 Periodicity/prediction/understanding/Genz: due to periodicity, prediction is possible without understanding. That is not a why-explanation. II 56 Prediction/forecasting/Genz: it is not the laws that are needed, but the consequences of these laws. II 299 Prediction/Genz: example: assuming you have a program called "Grail" that predicts the results of all possible experiments, if you have it, you do not need any laws of nature. II 300 Prediction/Genz: for example, my program "Grail" can predict the results of all experiments without knowing anything about natural laws: Assuming we wanted to build a missile shield: Grail can hardly support it, because we need more for a plan: II 301 Plan/Genz: a plan must be more than just predicting results: it must have insight into the possibilities. >Planning. Problem: no program that answers questions can decide which questions make sense. For example "Grail": doubles nature for us. We could ask nature itself instead of the Grail. Grail does not contribute to their understanding (GenzVsInstrumentalism). >Instrumentalism. The program does not explain anything, but calls for an explanation (like nature). >Explanations. Theory/Genz: physical theories have only the task of explaining sensory impressions. They form systems of statements and draw verifiable experimental conclusions from them. ((s) = observation conditional ). >Observation conditional._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. Translations: Dictionary of Arguments The note [Concept/Author], [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] resp. "problem:"/"solution:", "old:"/"new:" and "thesis:" is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition. |
Gz I H. Genz Gedankenexperimente Weinheim 1999 Gz II Henning Genz Wie die Naturgesetze Wirklichkeit schaffen. Über Physik und Realität München 2002 |
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> Counter arguments against Genz
> Counter arguments in relation to Prediction
