Psychology Dictionary of Arguments

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Prediction: Prediction is the process of making a statement about what will happen in the future. It can be based on past experience, current trends, or expert knowledge. See also Statements, Assertions, Method, Knowledge, Future, Certainty.
Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments.

Author Concept Summary/Quotes Sources

Hennig Genz on Prediction - Dictionary of Arguments

II 18
Theory/physics/Genz: the task of theory is not prediction, but explanation. Predictions are only for review.
, >Measurements.
II 45
Prediction/description/periodicity/Genz: question: the Babylonians could also predict solar eclipses without even knowing how the solar system was constructed.
Solution: this was possible because the operations in the system are periodic.
Example: "Saros cycle": after 6585 1/3 days there is another solar eclipse.
II 46
Periodicity/prediction/understanding/Genz: due to periodicity, prediction is possible without understanding. That is not a why-explanation.
II 56
Prediction/forecasting/Genz: it is not the laws that are needed, but the consequences of these laws.
II 299
Prediction/Genz: example: assuming you have a program called "Grail" that predicts the results of all possible experiments, if you have it, you do not need any laws of nature.
II 300
Prediction/Genz: for example, my program "Grail" can predict the results of all experiments without knowing anything about natural laws: Assuming we wanted to build a missile shield: Grail can hardly support it, because we need more for a plan:
II 301
Plan/Genz: a plan must be more than just predicting results: it must have insight into the possibilities.
Problem: no program that answers questions can decide which questions make sense.
For example "Grail": doubles nature for us. We could ask nature itself instead of the Grail. Grail does not contribute to their understanding (GenzVsInstrumentalism).
The program does not explain anything, but calls for an explanation (like nature).
Theory/Genz: physical theories have only the task of explaining sensory impressions. They form systems of statements and draw verifiable experimental conclusions from them. ((s) = observation conditional ).
>Observation conditional.

Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. Translations: Dictionary of Arguments
The note [Concept/Author], [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] resp. "problem:"/"solution:", "old:"/"new:" and "thesis:" is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition.

Gz I
H. Genz
Gedankenexperimente Weinheim 1999

Henning Genz
Wie die Naturgesetze Wirklichkeit schaffen. Über Physik und Realität München 2002

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