|Conditional probability: probability of an event if another event is given. _____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. |
Nancy Cartwright on Conditional Probability - Dictionary of Arguments
Conditional Probability/Cartwright: is the measure of efficiency.
Conditional Probability/Harper/Gibbard/Cartwright: can be deceiving. - E.g. it is indeed the case that the owners of the insurance policy live longer, but it would be a poor strategy, to buy one in order to get a longer life. Solution/Cartwright: counterfactual conditionals - It's not about how many live longer, but the probability that a person lives longer if they buy one. - Problem: testing probability for counterfactual conditionals -> Kripke/((s) because we invent the possible worlds) - apparent conditional probability: is not a measure with linked causes.
Conditional probability: elimination of causal laws. - Instead: association, common occurrence.
Partial Conditional Probability/Cartwright: Important argument: it holds all and only the causal factors fixed._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. Translations: Dictionary of Arguments The note [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition.
How the laws of physics lie Oxford New York 1983
A Neglected Theory of Truth. Philosophical Essays, Cambridge/MA pp. 71-93
Theories of Truth, Paul Horwich, Aldershot 1994
Ontology and the theory of meaning Chicago 1954