|Bayesianism: perceives probability as the degree of a belief. See also subjective probability, objective probability, chance, likelihood._____________Annotation: The above characterizations of concepts are neither definitions nor exhausting presentations of problems related to them. Instead, they are intended to give a short introduction to the contributions below. – Lexicon of Arguments. |
Definition Bayes-Formel/Pinker: chances in two competing hypotheses can be calculated using only two numbers - 1. Initial probability: how safe is the hypothesis before any data are considered? - 2. "likelihood" assumes the hypothesis is true, how likely is it that the evidence we have actually occurs? - Then take the initial probabilities for both hypotheses and the likelihood and divide the two numbers. that is the probability of applying the first hypothesis._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. The note [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition.
How the Mind Works, New York 1997
Wie das Denken im Kopf entsteht München 1998