Price/Information/Markets/Sunstein: one way to get information is to look at prices and the signals sent by them. For example, one can place a bet to assess the strength of the different views in a group.
Prices are not determined by experts, but are created in markets and thus by the assessment of many independent individuals. If we want to have access to what many people think, we must examine whether economic incentives are not a more systematic and formal means of doing so.
Prediction markets/prediction markets/Sunstein: (See also Google/Sunstein). Investments in such markets, where people bet on a particular outcome they expect, will not be published. The private information that flows into the system is reflected in prices.
Since people can lose money here, those who have less information will not participate, the more those who have a lot of information. Group pressure and polarisation within groups (see Communication/Sunstein) do not occur in markets.
For example, election forecasts: the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) outperformed conventional election forecasts in 2004 in 451 of 596 cases. (1) Conventional polling surveys ask people what they think - not who wins the election.
1. See Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock, Harnessing the Power of Information: A New Approach to Economic Development, AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, Working Paper No. 04–21 (2004), 4, available at http://www.aei-brookings.org/ publications/abstract.php?pid=846._____________Explanation of symbols: Roman numerals indicate the source, arabic numerals indicate the page number. The corresponding books are indicated on the right hand side. ((s)…): Comment by the sender of the contribution. The note [Author1]Vs[Author2] or [Author]Vs[term] is an addition from the Dictionary of Arguments. If a German edition is specified, the page numbers refer to this edition.
Cass R. Sunstein
Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge Oxford 2008
Cass R. Sunstein
#Republic: Divided Democracy in the Age of Social Media Princeton 2017