Lexicon of Arguments

Philosophical and Scientific Issues in Dispute
 
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Theses II

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I 304/305
Definition Bayes-Formel/Pinker: chances in two competing hypotheses can be calculated using only two numbers
1. Initial probability: how safe is the hypothesis before any data are considered?
2. "likelihood" assumes the hypothesis is true, how likely is it that the evidence we have actually occurs?
Then take the initial probabilities for both hypotheses and the likelihood and divide the two numbers. that is the probability of applying the first hypothesis.
>Hypothesis, >Likelihood, >Chance, >Probability, >Conditional Probability, >Probability-Conditional, >Subjective Probability, >Probability theory, >Probability distribution.

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